Daily Market Analysis for Sept 19

Let's Recap on the Market... The last week, the Dow has seen a 5 day run up the charts.

What caused the bull run? My guess is that there is only 1 cause.
1. Fund Managers buying up stuff for window dressing

Strangely, the bad economic news last week barely scratched the market. Coupled with the light volume, it suggests that traders and many people are not entering at this time. The banks and fund managers are buying up all these stuff just for their portfolio.

Key News
Housing Market Index


Obama's Speech of cutting Deficit.

Feel of Market Sentiment
Bearish.

People are Bearish of the Greece Debt again... I'm tired of this story... any new ones?
You can see that people are just making up news.

Technicalities
Quoted on Friday 16-Sept:
        "I believe that given the news to be good, today will give some upside."

Monday effect... Recall that last Friday was up slightly... We haven't had a up friday up monday for weeks!
Is it going to happen today?


Stock market futures are down heavily today. And with the Europe Stock Exchange dipping so deep, I think the US isn't going anywhere today.

If anything, I would expect the big boys to make a big move today... they are going to BUY!
Direction for US 16-Sept:

Forecast Accuracy since 6-Sept 2011: 5/6  (83.33%)

Timing shown below is Singapore Time +8 GMT

Daily Market Analysis for Sept 16

After a few days of MIA, I'll just make another quick update today... Brief and Concise. Enjoy!


Key News
TIC long term purchases

UOM consumer sentiment


-- For both of these news, we can play on probablity again. The last 4-5 or even 7 times the actual was worse than the forecast. By probability, today's news will most probably beat the forecast.

Feel of Market Sentiment
Neutral.

Technicalities
5th candle reversal governed by the Fibonacci numbers alert!
Normally, I will be bearish on Fridays since it is not known to make any strong bull runs.

Today is expiration Friday. Normally it has been bullish.

I believe that given the news to be good, today will give some upside.


Direction for US 16-Sept:

Forecast Accuracy since 6-Sept 2011: 4/5  (80%)

Timing shown below is Singapore Time +8 GMT

Daily Market Analysis for Sept-12 Before Market Open

I'll just make a quick update today...

Today is 'black monday'

Stocks free falling... This may be due to the fear of Greece Default, and the rememberance of the sept 11 twin tower crash.

Key News
-none-

Feel of Market Sentiment
Bearish

Technicalities
Today is the 3rd day. Stocks have a higher probability of reversing.
Down Friday, Up monday, but maybe not today since the sentiment is bearish.

Stocks will gap down at open... but today i'm going to predict the direction after the gap down.

Stocks are likely to be volitile in the 1st 2 hours of trading, with main direction down as retailers sell their stocks in fear. index to remain quite flat throughout the day,  with possible trending after 2.30pm EST.

Intraday Direction for US 12-Sept:
General Direction for US 12-Sept:
Forecast Accuracy since 6-Sept 2011: 4/4 (100%)

Timing shown below is Singapore Time +8 GMT

Daily Market Analysis for 9-Sept Before Market Open

It was an eventful day yesterday!Highlights were Obama and Bernanke's Speech...

Disappointment was all over the place though, as Bernanke still didn't go for a stimulus plan... and that many didn't welcome Obama's plan...

I on the other hand, would gladly welcome Obama's plan... the drop in the market was due to overexpectation... nothing else. Who wouldn't want a stimulus in a time like this?
Some say cut spending... Are you crazy?? If you cut you are sure the send the economy into recession...

I've bought up the Singapore Index today for mid-term investment.

Highlights for today:
G-7 meetings

The market is due to react to Obama's speech today. Market sentiment is rather gloomy for today after the disappointment.

Direction for US 9-Sept:


Forecast Accuracy since 6-Sept 2011: 3/3 (100%)

Timing shown below is Singapore Time +8 GMT

Daily Market Analysis for 8-Sept Before Market Open

News really moves markets.

Now, hopes of Europe bailout and the US stimulus are making markets rally.

Now, let us look at what's going to happen today... It's an eventful day really...

US trade Deficeit
Unemployment Claims -- 8.30am

Bernanke Speech -- 1.30

After Market Closes: Obama Speech


Latest update shows Unemployment claims was worse than expectations... But not too far off.

-- A 414K unemployment claims vs 407K consensus.

The trade deficeit narrowed... But Is it really good? This could be signs that consumer spending have decreased as there are decreased demands... It need not necessarily mean increased Exports...


US will still wait for the speech later...

Technical wise, It's the 3rd candle today after 2 days of rally... Markets are more likely to reverse



Direction for US 7-Sept:


Forecast Barometer since 6-Sept 2011: 2/2 (100%)

Daily Market Analysis for 7-Sept Before Market Open

The ISM news had been good, Driving the markets up yesterday.

"Notice that the last 2 times, the forecast was wrong... The actual can't be worse than the forecast all the time. Normally after 2 times of being wrong, the next one will come out as being better than forecast."  -- Sept 6

What really remains are the problems of the Euro Debt Crisis. It's not news  anymore and historically, this kind of problems cannot really be resolved.

Markets has already priced in the debt crisis but not to the full extent of the possibility of having bankrupt countries.
There's no way anyone can predict what will happen in the medium term future... This fear of uncertainty has also been the 'criminal' in driving the Gold prices up, and driving markets down.
Investors and traders are watching the markets very closely and they will be very touchy in the next week or so, inducing volitility.

Notice that I am 'feeling' the market and i'll not be  making too much sense of all the financial reports out there. There is simply too much to analyse... that one will get into the paralysis syndrome and make the wrong decisions.

I will be looking at some key indicators of financial health... Let's take a look at the yield curve.
It's not that steep, but rather it's gently sloping... Economy is recovering over the long term of 1.5 - 2 years.

However, if we do make a double dip recession, ending at 2012-2013, then be prepared for more wars... because the bailout for the great depression was World War 2... There's nothing else to write off the debt of 2 bankrupt countries.

Let's look at the markets today.
It's really a tough call for today... There'll be no major news and maybe the only one which can have some impact is Evan's speech today.
The German court ruling today will impact world markets.
Asian Markets are up quite strongly(induced by US), and given some of the good news in Japan, it might have some impact on the US markets tonight...

EDIT @ 8.50am EST:

It turns out that the German court bailout ruling was well received by the market... It sparks hope for bailout of the Euro Debts.

"A ruling in the German Constitutional Court to reject a series of lawsuits aimed at blocking German participation in eurozone bailouts was well received by the market,"

Germany's top court ruled on Wednesday that aid for Greece and rescues for other eurozone countries... --Report by AFP

Direction for US 7-Sept:

Forecast Barometer since 6-Sept 2011: 1/1 (100%)

Daily Market Analysis for 6 Sept 2011

Economy now stinks... That's all I can say. After the latest Non-Farm Payrolls, 0 net jobs were created. Economy is struggling like hell... And on 2nd of August, the Obama administration still wants to cut spending?

The promise by fed to Intervene by adding stimulus may just be a hoax after all. Since they can say what they want, but do they actually have the funds to do so? Don't forget they still have to 'find' 12 trillion by 2013 after all.

Traditionally, September is the worst month of the trading year; with gains not as high as other months and loses more than other months.

After the short rally induced by covering of short selling, where is the market headed next few days?

Well, it turns out that 5 of september is a holiday, which means there is a long weekend for the americans. After a long weekend, markets usually rally.
This is coupled with the fact that it is the 3rd candle after 2 down days, so there's a high probability that it might reverse.

Important news releases for 6th Semtember:
Services PMI

Well, I don't know whether the Services PMI is going to be better than expected or not, but we can play on probability.
Notice that the last 2 times, the forecast was wrong... The actual can't be worse than the forecast all the time. Normally after 2 times of being wrong, the next one will come out as being better than forecast.
refer to www.forexfactory.com

Market for 6- September: